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Scientists from all over the world have teamed up to track the way the seasonal flu virus travels from its origins in East and Southeast Asia to exactly where it fizzles out in South America. They hope the discovery will support to improve flu vaccines by making it easier to anticipate how the virus evolves.
The discovery is to be published within the 18 April 2008 edition of Science and may be the work of scientists in the University of Cambridge as well as the World Well being Organisation (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance Network. The Network comprises 100 labs in 80 countries around the globe.
Scientists have established that since 2002, new “seed strains” of the the typical type A (H3N2) human flu virus arise each year in what the study authors describe as the “East and Southeast Asian circulation network”, which includes countries in tropical, subtropical, and temperate zones, spanning Malaysia, western Indonesia, Korea and Japan.
According to the World Well being Organization (WHO), about 5 to 15 per cent of the world’s population catches the flu every year, resulting in 3 to five million serious instances and between quarter and half a million deaths. Some 300 million people are vaccinated each year against seasonal flu.
In February and September every year, WHO specialists, numerous of whom co-authored this study, meet to select the strains of flu to use in preparing the coming season’s vaccine. They base their selection on what they consider to be the strains that are most likely to pose the greatest threat.
A significant challenge in making this selection is not knowing exactly what migration pattern the flu virus strains follow, which until now has been somewhat of a mystery. There have been several theories, such as the virus follows the seasons, or it circulates continuously in the tropics and breaks out now and again, or that it migrates out of China.
Cambridge epidemiologist and study co-author Colin Russell and colleagues examined 13,000 global samples of the type A (H3N2) virus that were collected in between 2002 and 2007 by the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network.
By analysing the samples they identified which strains in A (H3N2) caused one of the most illness in each and every of the five years at every point of their journey worldwide. They also determined the path of that journey, which starts in East and Southeast Asia, then six to nine months later reaches Europe and North America. Several months after that the virus strains travel to South America, and rarely return to their origins in Asia, stated the authors.
Scientists don’t know why, but flu epidemics typically occur during winter in temperate regions within the northern and southern hemispheres, and in tropical regions they mostly break out during the rainy season. These two diverse types of region overlap in East and Southeast Asia, which the authors suggest give the flu virus the chance to keep circulating all year round, giving rise to new strains that break out and travel around the world.
Corresponding author Derek Smith, also from the University of Cambridge said:
“Flu epidemics appear to be driven by seasonal elements such as winter, or rainy seasons. So there can be cities that are only 700 miles away from every single other, such as Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, which have epidemics six months apart.”
“There is a lot of variability like this in East and Southeast Asia, so lots of opportunity for an epidemic in 1 country to seed an epidemic to another nearby country, like a baton passed by runners in a relay race,” he added.
On the whole, said the authors, the seasonal flu vaccine is successful at protecting the 300 million folks that are vaccinated each year, since the vaccine selection specialists hit on the right combination of subtypes. But every now and again a new strain emerges after the selection is created.
Smith stated the goal of the collaborative effort is to increase the capability to predict the new strains every year, and this study was another step in that direction, and particulary:
“Highlights the importance of ongoing collaborations and surveillance in East and Southeast Asia, and expanding these collaborations in the future,” said Smith.
A key approach used in the study was the analysis of genetic and “antigenic” data. The initial comes from studying the genetics of the virus itself, and the second comes from studying immune system reactions to the virus, and how each alter as the virus evolves on its journey around the globe.
To map the evolutionary trajectory of the virus, the authors utilized an innovative personal computer based quantitative technique referred to as “antigenic cartography”, created by researchers at Erasmus Medical Center, Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as the University of Cambridge.
Using this strategy scientists can compare thousands of viruses at a time and map the differences between them in such a way that they can trace their evolutionary path more than time.
Dr Elias A Zerhouni, director of the US National Institutes of Wellness, whose Pioneer Award programme co-sponsored the study, stated:
“By applying an innovative strategy to map differences in seasonal influenza strains worldwide, Smith and his colleagues have offered crucial insights into patterns of influenza virus spread that could greatly improve surveillance and vaccine strain selection.”
Zerhouni added that this investigation showed the value of “supporting exceptionally inventive approaches to major challenges in biomedical and behavioural research”.
The importance of worldwide timely colloboration among the several scientists within the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network cannot be under-emphasized. The flu virus evolves so quickly that the scientists are essentially “tracking its evolution in real time”, said Smith.
“Because flu evolves so quickly, flu science and public wellness necessarily go hand in hand,” he added.
“The global circulation of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses.”
Science, To be published early on-line on 18 April 2008.
Click here for Science.
Click here to learn more about seasonal flu (WHO factsheet).
Source: University of Cambridge press release, WHO.
Written by: Catharine Paddock, PhD
Copyright: Medical News Today
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